by Don Atkinson (from The Ottawa Citizen, 1991)
There is a lot of irresponsible drivel emanating from separatist ideologues, meant to lull Quebeckers into believing that going off on their own might be a little difficult, but not too difficult.
While continuing to work at keeping the country intact, Canadians must make it crystal clear to the Quebec people what the total bill for separation will be. And we need to tell them now, so they may make an informed decision when voting in the planned referendum.
If they are not persuaded that the separatist flag bearers
are wrong, Quebeckers cannot be blamed for believing separation might not
be so bad. Unfortunately, other than to utter more rhetoric, no Canadian
leader has seen fit to set them straight on this important matter.
Growing insistence
For starters, Quebeckers need to know there is little likelihood the geographical entity that now constitutes their province will simple become a country called Quebec. There is a rapidly growing insistence across Canada that the maritime provinces not be separated from the rest of us by a foreign country.
Some sort of land corridor from Ontario to the east coast, together with joint ownership of the St. Lawrence Seaway would be a starting point, not a negotiating point. While I regard as a bit extreme the argument being pursued by some that we would take back all the territory assigned to Canada by the British Crown and the Hudson Bay Company after confederation, I see nothing to prevent parts of what is now Quebec seceding from the new country.
Point is, once Quebec begins tinkering with the geo-political status quo, events could well spin out of control.
The Cree in northern Quebec have already stated their clear intentions to sabotage James Bay II if it proceeds as planned, and this is nothing compared to what will happen if Quebec tries to force them to leave the protection of the Canadian government. And Quebec will no longer have the support of the Canadian Army, as it did at Oka.
To those who might say such dissenting groups could not do that, I say nonsense. What's to stop them? There already seems to be a consensus amongst the rest of us that we should not try to keep Quebec in Canada by force--thank goodness. But there is little doubt Canadian attitudes would change, explosively, if Quebec should attempt to force compliance upon its dissenters.
Now enter the nasty world of economics. Given the best-case scenario, things could possible work out along the lines suggested by Jacques Parizeau, Quebec's economic guru: Canada would, after separation, have to accept business as usual, like it or not. That sort of patronizing arrogance is one of the reasons the best-case scenario would almost certainly be a non-starter.
And divvying up the assets and liabilities would certainly bring on a long, acrimonious ordeal. Our foreign creditors have, so far, not reacted to our shenanigans by pulling out their cash, believing that we could not be so stupid as to self-destruct.
Once it finally dawns on them that we are bent on adopting
the stability one normally expects to find in South American countries,
they will either demand exorbitant interest rates from us, or take their
money elsewhere. Either move would start us down the path trodden by such
countries as Brazil and Argentina, with high inflation and a low standard
of living. While both Quebec and Canada would be losers, the separatist
zealots simply do not care. The Quebec voters might.
Ticket to fortune
One senses Quebec is counting on the free trade agreement with the United States to be their ticket to good fortune, even if Canada should prove difficult. But given the tentative reactions from Uncle Sam so far, Quebeckers had better make no careless assumptions on that score.
They would undoubtedly have to work out a separate deal with the U.S., and if they think protecting their cultural identity within Canada was onerous, wait until they try horse trading with the Americans.
Jean-Louis Poulin, a Quebec businessman, perhaps had some of these things in mind when speaking with Citizen staff writer Daniel Drolet (The Citizen, March 27, 1991): "A lot of people say, 'Yeah, we'll separate.' But when the time comes to sign the dotted line, they think about it more closely."
Ultimately, Quebec may go its own way, and that would be sad. But it would be especially tragic if we were to permit the people of Quebec to be misled by their emotionally motivated, self-seeking intelligentsia into believing the cost would be relatively easy to accept. It would not.